Stock Day
Trading
When it comes to judging a
stock's potential, there are really just two
schools of thought. They're called fundamental analysis and
technical
analysis. And while successful traders often use both types of
analysis, the most successful traders master one or the other.
In general, fundamental analysts concern themselves with a company
itself. They dig into financial statements and balance sheets. They
calculate assets vs. liabilities, sales vs. profits -- all the
nitty-gritty details to find out what a company is really worth.
Fundamental analysis can be a great way to find stocks for your
portfolio that you plan on holding for a long time. But just because
a company looks great on paper doesn't mean the stock market will
agree. In the short term, anything can happen. And that's where
technical analysis can help.
Technical analysts rarely worry about companies themselves. They're
more concerned with the company's stock price. Using charts or other
systems, a technical analyst tries to decide where a stock price is
going next.
A solid technical analysis system is a great way to take advantage
of
short-term stock moves.
As you may know, I'm also a big advocate of having a firm trading
strategy in mind. To help guide that strategy, I also calculate to
very important numbers -- support and resistance.
These two numbers are the bread and butter of technical analysts.
Each one tends to calculate support and resistance in different
ways. So it's not really important to tell you how I calculate them.
It's just important to
know what the terms mean.
The technical answer is, support is an area of expected
institutional
buying. Resistance represents expected professional selling.
Simply put, support represents the expected "floor" of a stock. That
is, the lowest price you can expect it to go. That's because when
the price falls to this price, institutions and investors tend to
step in, buying up the stock. That buying "supports" the stock
price.
Think of it this way. Suppose a fictional company, Widget Co., is
trading
for $53. And let's say that brokerage houses have a lot of standing
orders from their clients to buy Widget Co. at $50.
In other words, these orders will not trigger as long as Widget Co.
is
selling for more than $50. But if the stock falls to $50, the
brokers start
executing the limit orders. All of a sudden, there is a flood of
buyers for
the stock. The demand keeps the price up.
Of course, support is not foolproof. In fact, stocks can and often
do break through their support lines. It means that more people are
selling the stock than are buying... so the bears are in control.
When a stock breaks through resistance, on the other hand, it's a
bullish sign. Resistance can be considered a stock's ceiling. It is
the price a stock is expected to have trouble breaking through.
Just like with support, resistance is controlled by institutional
investors.
Except this time, it is the price at which they can be expected to
sell the stock.
For example, assume Widget Co. stock is at $53. But instead of
falling, the stock rises. And keeps rising.
In this example, a lot of people will want to take profits if the
stock
rises $10. So they put in limit orders...and if the stock hits $63,
the
selling begins. The shares flood the market, driving the stock price
down.
Of course, resistance isn't absolute, either. And if there are more
buyers
than sellers, the stock will break through resistance. It's a good
sign the
stock is on a bull run.
Knowing a stock's support and resistance can help you decide what to
do with your options. That's because an option's price follows a
stock price. So knowing the "floor" and the "ceiling" can help you
determine your trading strategy.
Remember, if a stock breaks through support, it is falling -- and
the bears are in charge of a stock price. If you have a call option,
it can be very bad news for you. You may want to consider selling
the option in case the stock goes even lower.
Of course, a lower stock price is what you want to see if you have a
put on it. So if the stock breaks through resistance, it should mean
profits for you. You really have two options now. You can sell the
option, locking in your profits. Or you can ride the stock down,
squeezing more profits out of your option on the way.
Just be careful, because the stock can turn around without warning.
If you hold on, monitor your position carefully and use proper
trading discipline to sell at the best price.
(As you can probably guess, the opposite thinking applies to
resistance. If you own a put and a stock breaks through resistance
-- meaning it's heading higher -- consider selling the put. If you
own a call, use your money management system to decide whether to
take profits or hang on for more.)
Remember, if you want to make a lot of money in options, it is
essential to buy and sell at the right price. Support and resistance
are two tools to
help you find that right price. Use them correctly -- as part of
your total
money management system -- and you should quickly increase your
profits.
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